Assessing the Future of the Sacramento Kings

Last season the Sacramento Kings were one of the biggest surprises of the 2018-2019 NBA season. Prior to the 2018-2019 season, they were projected by ESPN to win 27 games and finish last in the Western Conference. Bleacher Report projected for them to win 25 games that season. The Kings exceeded these expectations and finished with 39 wins and ranked as the 9th seed in the Western Conference. This success was thanks to their fast playstyle, as they ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace last season. De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield had breakout seasons which heavily contributed for the team’s success that season. They also had their 2nd overall pick Marvin Bagley on the roster. Their future was looking very bright with their young core already being close to the playoffs.

Now a year later, they have one of the most uncertain futures in the NBA. Vlade Divac recently stepped down as the Sacramento Kings general manager. Vlade Divac made some questionable moves as the general manager of the Kings, including drafting Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic in the 2018 NBA draft. Bagley has played 75 games over the course of 2 seasons and has struggled with injuries. Meanwhile, Doncic is one of the NBA’s best players and leading his Dallas Mavericks into the playoffs. Hopefully with Divac stepping down, they can get a more competent general manager for the Kings front office. The Kings currently hold a 14 year playoff drought, which ranks as the second longest playoff drought in NBA history. In this article we will be assessing the future of the Kings and what moves they need to make to end their historic playoff drought.

Coaching/Playstyle

Last season, the Kings won 39 games and were the 9th seeded team in the Western Conference. This was the best season the franchise has had since the 2005-2006 season. Lots of their success could be attributed to their run and gun playstyle, which was orchestrated by former Kings head coach David Joerger. Vlade decided to fire head coach Joerger, despite them being one of the most promising up and coming teams in the NBA. Divac fired the Kings head coach after they just had a very successful season that surprised a lot of people. This firing had many people puzzled as to why Joerger got fired. They replaced David Joerger by hiring former Lakers head coach Luke Walton.

Luke Walton has been a big factor in the Kings fall off this season. The Kings found success during the 2018-2019 season due to their incredible pace and great offence. This season however, Luke Walton has made the Kings play a slower style of basketball which has led to less success.

They went from the 3rd highest paced team in the league under Joerger, to the 19th highest paced team under Luke Walton. During the 2018-2019 season the Kings led the league in fast break points with an average of 20.9 fast break points per game. During this most recent season the team ranked 19th in the league in fast break points with an average of 12.7 fast break points per game. The Kings thrived in the fast break and have struggled in the half-court offence this season. Walton took away the team’s biggest strength and stripped their identity as a young fast team. If they want to find more success, they need to speed up the offence and pick up the pace. Especially when you have De’Aaron Fox who is one of the fastest players in the NBA.

Future of Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield’s future in Sacramento is very questionable. Last season he signed a 4 year contract extension worth $106 million dollars. At the time, it was a very good value contract. Hield is an elite shooter who came off the best season of his career and was just entering his prime. However, he struggled to start out the 2019-2020 season. In the first month of the season, he averaged 16 points per game while shooting 35% from the field and under 40% from the 3 point line. He also started off the year with a horrendous plus minus of -21.6.

Luke Walton moved Buddy to the bench later on in the season. Hield has vocally expressed his frustration with moving to the bench, creating bad blood between Hield and head coach Luke Walton. There were numerous times this season when Buddy was sitting on the bench in the clutch when his team could’ve used his play on the court. There is tension between Hield and the Kings organization and it’s very likely that he gets dealt in the offseason.

Hield is an elite shooter who offensively fits great next to De’Aaron Fox. Despite this Hield, might need a change of scenery. He wants an increased role and he can get dealt to a team that will give him more opportunity to succeed. It is more than likely that Hield will be traded in the offseason. The real question is what team he gets traded to and what the Kings ask in return for Buddy. Only time will tell Buddy’s future in Sacramento, which will play a huge effect on the organization going forward.

De’Aaron Fox

Fox had a breakout year last season and finished 3rd in the most improved player voting. The former 5th overall pick improved greatly in every main statistical category and proved he has the potential to be an all-NBA player in the future.

This season, De’Aaron took another jump in his game. He improved his ability to drive to the basket. He went from 12.2 drives per game to 18.3 drives per game. Fox became more aggressive which helped improve his free throw attempts. He went from 5.1 free throw attempts per game to 6.7 free throw attempts per game. This helped open up the floor for his teammates. He needs to improve on his drive and kick game by finding open shooters when attacking the basket. Fox was great in the clutch this season and proved he can be a reliable go to option in late game situations. De’Aaron has emerged as the leader of the team and has become a great young floor general.

The biggest flaw in Fox’s game this season was his shooting. Last season, he developed a respectable jump shot and became a solid threat from beyond the arc. This season, Fox took a step back in regards to his jump shooting. He only shot 29% from 3 this season with almost four 3 point attempts per game. Fox needs to improve his range if he wants to elevate his game to the next level. He was a reliable midrange shooter this season shooting 44% from midrange, but he needs to increase his volume as he shot under 2 midrange shots per game. If De’Aaron is not going to be shooting 3 pointers at a high percentage, then he should start to go to the midrange shot more often.

De’Aaron Fox is the future of the Sacramento Kings. He is currently their best player on the roster and also has the most potential on the team. Fox is eligible for a contract extension this summer and the Kings should do everything in their power to extend him for long term. They need to prioritize keeping Fox happy if they want him to stay in Sacramento.

The way to make him happy is to build around Fox. De’Aaron is a player you can build around. The Kings need to prioritize surrounding De’Aaron Fox with more talent, to raise the ceiling of this team. Surrounding Fox with more shooters will make him an even bigger threat in the drive and kick, as well as improve his playmaking production. Fox would also greatly benefit from a pick and roll partner who can clean the glass. If they commit to Fox long-term and acquire talent that fits next to De’Aaron, then this team can find success in the near future.

Marvin Bagley III

Marvin Bagley is the biggest question mark on the Sacramento Kings roster. Bagley was the number one ranked prospect coming out of high school and was a top player in college during his time with Duke. He was selected 2nd overall in the 2018 NBA draft and was compared to multiple time all stars Chris Bosh and Amar’e Stoudemire.

Fast forward 2 years later and he hasn’t shown flashes of potential. He has had major injury concerns early in his career and has struggled to stay on the court. It is difficult to evaluate Bagley and how good he can become when we’ve barely seen him play. The injuries could be a red flag for the 20 year old and could potentially derail his NBA career. He has suffered multiple foot and knee injuries early in his NBA career, which is concerning for a player who heavily relies on their athleticism. Marvin Bagley still has good potential, but due to the injuries and lack of a jump shot, he is less likely of reaching his full potential. This could lead people to label him as a bust if he doesn’t show massive improvements soon.

What stings even more is the fact that the Kings drafted Bagley over 21 year old prodigy Luka Doncic. Bagley has a lot of work to do if he wants to avoid being known only as “the guy who was selected above Luka.”

Marvin has the tools to be an all-star caliber player. He is 6″11 with good length and tremendous athleticism. Bagley would excel in a fast paced offence next to De’Aaron Fox, due to Marvin’s ability to run the floor. He would also be a lethal pick and roll partner for Fox and would be a great lob threat.

Earlier in the season, Luke Walton compared Marvin Bagley to NBA superstar and reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Bagley also has stated that he’s been studying Giannis and his game and taking notes on how he can improve his own game. Although Marvin is more than likely never even going to come close to the player that Giannis is, it still shows you that Bagley has the tools to be a great player.

Bagley will be a key factor in determining the success of the Kings moving forward. If he can improve his game and stay healthy, then he can potentially form a great young duo with De’Aaron Fox. I don’t think he’ll ever be the best player on a team, but I think he can develop into the second best player on a playoff team for the Kings. His ceiling is a Shawn Kemp caliber player. An athletic rebounder who can dunk, block shots and average 15-20 points per game. If he can achieve this then that will play a huge factor in the Kings returning to the playoffs. Worst case scenario is that Bagley struggles with injuries throughout his whole career and never gets close to his potential. This would make the Kings rebuild much more difficult and Bagley could potentially go down as a monumental draft bust.

Bogdan Bogdanovic Contract

The biggest question for the Kings and the 2020 free agency is the future of Bogdan Bogdanovic. Sacramento is faced with the option of keeping Buddy Hield and letting Bogdanovic walk, or re-signing Bogdan and parting ways with Hield. Due to Hield’s frustration with the team and his role, it is very likely the Kings opt to resign Bogdan.

Bogdan was good when he was in the starting role. He averaged 16 points per game with 46% shooting from the field and a good offensive rating. Bogdanovic’s versatility may help the Kings decision to resign him. He can play the point guard, shooting guard or small forward position. He also provides a solid scoring punch and serviceable playmaking and defence. Bogdanovic is an upcoming RFA but the Kings did give him a contract extension offer earlier in the season. They offered him a 4 year $51.4 million dollar contract which he declined. He is most likely looking for a 4 year contract worth at least $60 million dollars. If he does resign, it will most likely be a 4 year deal worth $60-80 million dollars.

Young Players on the Team

Outside of Fox and Bagley, there isn’t a lot of promising youth on the team. Their only young player rather than Fox and Bagley that can be rotational players are Harry Giles. Giles was the top recruited player in his class coming out of high school. He was also projected to go first overall in early 2017 NBA mock drafts. A severe injury made his stock tank in the 2017 draft. He fell to the 20th overall pick and was selected by the Portland Trailblazers but was immediately traded to the Sacramento Kings.

He sat out the whole 2017-2018 season, which was supposed to be his rookie season. During the 2018-2019 season he averaged 7 points and 3.8 rebounds per game while shooting 50% from the field. He only averaged 14 minutes per game in his rookie year and he averaged 13 points per game in games where he played over 20 minutes. Giles struggled with injuries in his rookie year and only played 58 games that season.

His second season was very similar to his rookie year. Giles averaged 7 points and 4 rebounds and shot 55% from the field. He also improved his free throw shooting in his second season. Giles went from 64% from the free throw line in his rookie year to 77% from the free throw line in his second season. He didn’t start any games in his rookie season but he started 17 games in the 2019-2020 season. As a starter, he averaged 10 points and 6.5 rebounds per game with 60% shooting from the field.

Giles has great potential and can be a key piece for the Kings but he hasn’t been given a big role yet. The Kings have a log jam in the front court, causing Giles to get lost in the rotation. The Kings are going to have Bagley, Holmes, Bjelica, Barnes and Jabari Parker ahead of Giles next season. They should try and make more room for Giles and get him at least 20 minutes per game next season.

Sacramento also has a lottery pick in the upcoming 2020 NBA draft. It is very unlikely the team jumps up in the draft lottery as they have a 1.3% chance at getting the first overall pick. They desperately need to hit on their first round pick to help their rebuild. They will most likely target a young wing in the draft, which this class has an abundance of. The Kings need to draft a good young player to fit in with their young core, especially since they didn’t own their own first round pick in the 2019 draft. Their original first round selection ended up becoming Romeo Langford. If the Kings want to improve their depth and young core, they need to draft wisely in the upcoming draft.

Conclusion

Vlade Divac stepping down as the Kings general manager is very promising for the franchise. They can bring in capable management to make the right moves for the organization to bring them to success. The Kings need to keep and develop their young talent, as they are not a desirable free agent destination. Sacramento is a small market, which will make it nearly impossible to lure a big name free agent. They need to work on developing their young players and keeping them content. Fox can lead his team to the playoffs with the right players around him. Bagley is a hit or miss player who you can’t give up on yet and Buddy Hield is a great trade asset.

It’s going to be very difficult to make this team a playoff team, especially in the stacked Western Conference. If they increase their pace and get good management, then that’s the first step for this team to potentially end their 14 year playoff drought.